Economics Confidence Quiz

Tom Cunningham · 2 September 2007 · restored historical quiz

How well do you know your own ignorance?

For each question, choose a low and high estimate so you are 50% sure the answer lies between them. Aim for about five of the ten answers inside your intervals. It is fine not to know the answer: the task is to judge your uncertainty.

About the restored scoring

This reconstruction counts an answer as covered when it is between your low and high estimates, including the endpoints. It does not reproduce the original server’s penalty calculation. Wider intervals are easier to cover; coverage alone is not a measure of forecasting skill. Ten questions are only a small calibration check.

The historical page also discussed a distance-based incentive rule. Its exact server calculation has not been recovered, so no penalty score has been invented here.