LSE/CEP MACRO GROUP
12 August - Tom Cunningham - Bank of England's Bad Predictions
- (1) the Bank has allocated £2.4m to upgrading their forecasting model - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7935732/Bank-of-England-overhauls-forecast-model-after-errors.html
- (2) the FT has called the forecasts biased & too variable http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e53a2de-a3f3-11df-9e3a-00144feabdc0.html
- (3) Blanchflower accuses King of fiddling the forecasts http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-12/king-s-men-fiddle-with-u-k-forecasts-david-g-blanchflower.html
- (4) 2005 Bank of England assessment of forecast accuracy: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/quarterlybulletin/qb050301.pdf
5 August -
29 July - Nathan Foley-Fisher - Irish Austerity
22 July - Tom Cunningham - Post-Crisis DeficitsFMG Library, 7pm.
- Reinhart & Rogoff, "the Aftermath of Financial Crises" http://www.nber.org/papers/w14656
- IMF WEO 2009, "What's the Damage? Medium-term output dynamics after financial crises" http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/pdf/c4.pdf
15 July - Chrisoph Ungerer - Inflation & Deflation ProspectsFMG Library, 7pm.
- Paul Krugman (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/25/inflation-deflation-japan/)
- Economist 1 http://www.economist.com/node/16271509
- Martin Feldstein (http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/martin-feldstein-inflation-or-deflation/400921/)
- Hamilton (http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/06/inflation_or_de.html)
- Economist 2 (http://www.economist.com/node/16381320?story_id=16381320)
- Economist Blog (http://www.economist.com/economics/by-invitation/questions/inflation_or_deflation_greater_threat_world_economy)
- Aizenman & Marion on effect of inflation on public debt ( http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4413 )
Summer Term 2009
29 May - Pablo Salame, Goldman Sachs(co-head of sales & trading)
Wednesday 20th of May - Charles Goodhart - 6pm FMG library
- Curdia & Woodford, "Credit Frictions & Optimal Monetary Policy," http://www.econ.columbia.edu/RePEc/pdf/DP0809-02.pdf
- Goodhart comments on Curdia & Woodford : http://www.bis.org/events/conf080626/goodhart.pdf
- Goodhart, Sunirand and Tsomocos, (2006) 'A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility', Economic Theory, http://www.springerlink.com/content/t30724g775v20880/
Monday 18th of May - John McDermott, chief economist, RBNZ - 6pm FMG library
- RBNZ's "monetary policy framework and goals", http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/about/3075587.pdf
- some NZ macro variables (main things of interest: low inflation since 1992, low unemployment since 2000, but very volatile exchange rate, volatile GDP growth, high interest rates, high debt/income, and persistent CA deficit, now 8%): http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/keygraphs/Fig1.html
- 2007 parliamentary enquiry into monetary policy - http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/about/3074316.html
- OECD April 2009 report on NZ: http://titania.sourceoecd.org/vl=1772293/cl=17/nw=1/rpsv/ij/oecdjournals/03766438/v2009n4/s1/p1l
15 May -- No meeting
8 May -- Carlos Eduardo Soares Gonçalves, FEA/USP, Inflation Targeting
1 May -- Greed & the Crisis - tom
- Krugman, "Greed is Bad," http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/04/opinion/04KRUG.html
- Shiller on Ethics: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9905E7DE1F3BF93BA35751C0A9639C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
- Larry White: "There is no doubt that private miscalculation and imprudence made matters worse for more than a few lending institutions and individual borrowers. (One can’t explain an unusual cluster of errors by citing greed, which is always around, just as one can’t explain a cluster of airplane crashes by citing gravity. Anyway, the greedy aim at profits, not losses.) Such mistakes help to explain which firms have run into the most trouble. But to explain industry-wide errors we need to identify policy distortions capable of having industry-wide effects. The actual causes of our financial troubles were unusual monetary policy moves and novel federal regulatory interventions. Regulatory distortions intensified in the 1990s. Poorly chosen public policies distorted interest rates and asset prices, diverted loanable funds into the wrong investments, and twisted normally robust financial institutions into unsustainable positions." http://www.cato-unbound.org/2008/12/02/lawrence-h-white/what-really-happened/
- Skreta & Veldkamp on why ratings stopped working (products got more complicated): http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3352 and http://www.nber.org/papers/w14761.pdf
20 March - Peter Boone ( http://baselinescenario.com/ )
6 March - Andy Anker (SAC Capital)
27 February - Paul Woolley
- Woolley & Vayanos (2008), "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/paulWoolleyCentre/publications/PWC1.htm
20 February - Manos Papatheophanos (EMSO partners)
13 February - (no meeting)
6 February - Multipliers, Mariano Cena
- Romer & Bernstein (Jan 09) "The Job Impact of the Fiscal Stimulus Plan" http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf
- Romer & Romer (2007) "THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TAX CHANGES: ESTIMATES BASED ON A NEW MEASURE OF FISCAL SHOCKS" http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~cromer/RomerDraft307.pdf
- Mankiw (Jan 09) doubts calculations of multipliers - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/business/economy/11view.html
- De Long response to Mankiw (Jan 09) http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/01/the-romer-view-of-tax-and-spending-multipliers-revisited.html
- Krugman, "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap," http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/optimalg.pdf -- a very short article with a simple model of optimal fiscal policy -- "The bottom line here is that while we usually think of Keynesianism as the preserve of ad hoc models, in this case doing it “right” – using a macromodel with maximizing agents and a proper concern for intertemporal constraints – actually suggests a very strong case for big government spending in the face of a liquidity trap. When the economy is depressed and monetary policy can’t set it right, the true opportunity cost of government spending is low. So let’s get those projects going.".
- Menzie Chinn, "Why Can't We All Just Get Along?" -- http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/02/why_canat_we_al.html -- overview of the different ways of estimating fiscal multipliers.
- Robert Barro on multipliers http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258618204604599.html , and interview with Robert Barro: http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/02/an_interview_with_robert_barro.php
- John Cochrane (Jan 09) "Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Inflation, or Fiscal Fallacies?", http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/fiscal2.htm He says that there are no respectable models of fiscal stimulus working, and no respectable evidence for it working. He says the basic problem is a big temporary increase in risk aversion, shifting demand from consumption & investment towards money & treasury bills. This increase in money demand would lead to deflation, all else equal. The solution is for the Government to take the money (issue more debt) and do investment; but better for the Fed to do this by buying private debt, rather than for the central government to do it.
- Mankiw (Dec 08) ( http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/spending-and-tax-multipliers.html ) He says that empirical studies find tax multipliers to be bigger (~3) than spending multipliers (~1.5), perhaps because of distortionary effects of taxation.
- Krugman (Jan 09) ( http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/28/fiscal-policy-formalities-wonkish/ ) says that New Open Economy Macro has good theoretical rationalisation for government spending multipliers.
30 January - joint micro/macro happy hour (in EOPP).
- Nathan's reading: Sargent, (2008) "Evolution and Intelligent Design" http://homepages.nyu.edu/~ts43/RESEARCH/AEA_Sargent_Jan7.pdf
Rodrik, "The New Development Economics," http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/The%20New%20Development%20Economics.pdf
Deaton, "Instruments of Development" http://www.princeton.edu/~deaton/downloads/Instruments_of_Development.pdf
- Daniel's reading: Lant Pritchett (2006) "The Quest Continues" http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/03/pritchet.htm
23 January - Tom Cunningham the Wealth Distribution & the Drop in Asset Prices
16 January - NO MEETING
12-Dec: NO MEETING
5-Dec: Paul Tew & Lucilia Falsarella-Pereira (OFT) The Lloyds-TSB HBOS merger[drinks: Christian]
- Guardian 21/9/08: A game of monopoly that changed the rules of British banking
- Telegraph 18/9/08: The takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB augurs hard times to come
- The Scotsman 25/10/08: Fears of a whitewash
- Economist, 6/11/08: Call it off
- Mergers - substantive assessment guidance
- Anticipated acquisition by Lloyds TSB plc of HBOS plc - Report to the Secretary of State
- Peter Mandelson gives regulatory clearance to Lloyds TSB merger with HBOS
- Anti-merger lobby: http://www.mergeractiongroup.org.uk/
28-Nov: Mario Blejer (10.45-12 )
- Background reading is "The IMF Should Guarantee Emerging Market Debt" http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/254315/the_imf_should_guarantee_emerging_market_debt
- Mario Blejer is former Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina, among other things. This is not a seminar, just an open discussion, & should cover emerging market issues in general. See http://www.marioblejer.com/
21-Nov: Christian Fons-Rosen, the Subprime Panic[drinks: Gunes]
- NY Times (March 07) "the Subprime Loan Machine" http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/business/23speed.html/?pagewanted=print
- Caplin on Shared Equity: http://cess.nyu.edu/caplin/subprime.html
- Washington Post (Nov 08), "Citigroup Plans to Ease Mortgage Terms for At-Risk Borrowers" http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/10/AR2008111002948_pf.html
- Gorton, "The Subprime Panic", http://papers.nber.org/papers/W14398
14/11: Alonso Perez-Kakabadse : How will the Financial Crisis Affect the Real Economy?[drinks: Hande]
- Facts and Myths About the Financial Crisis of 2008
- Looking Behind the Aggregates: A Reply to 'Facts and Myths About the Financial Crisis of 2008'
7/11: Manos Papatheophanos[drinks: James]
Manos Papatheofanos is a portfolio manager at EMSO Partners Ltd, a London based investment fund investing in emerging markets globally. His main focus in fixed income and foreign exchange. Manos received a BSc in Computer Sciences from Imperial College in 1993 and a MSc in Finance from LBS in 1998. Prior to joining EMSO in 2005 he worked at IXIS-CIB, Nomura, D E Shaw and Salomon Brothers.
Manos Papatheofanous will speak with us about the current event in the financial markets and in particular on the role and strategies that hedge funds devoted to emerging markets have played as the current financial crisis developed.
- why did decoupling not work?
- why did decoupling seem to be working at first?
- why did sovereign wealth funds not solve the problem?
- which countries have fared better? & what are the policy implications?
- Background Reading: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
- (if you have problems with FT articles, clear your cookies then try the link again).
31/10: Gianluca Benigno : emerging markets, decoupling, and CDSs @ 5PM![drinks: Christoph]
- CDS primer from Deutsche Bank
- Deutsche Bank: Credit Derivatives & Market Stability
- Morgan Stanley: credit derivatives, benefits and risks
- Fed on systemic risk: http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/CONFEREN/07FMC/07FMC_Weithers.pdf
24/10: Hande Kucuk-Tuger: What happened to the inflation target?[drinks: Gunes]
- FT: Authorities begin to put aside inflation fears http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd3c0832-94ca-11dd-953e-000077b07658,s01=1.html
- Mishkin: Do not Abandon Inflation Targets
- Business response to inflation: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a62b4cc-8e88-11dd-9b46-0000779fd18c,s01=1.html
- Some background literature on inflation targeting: http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/fmishkin/PDFpapers/w8397.pdf and http://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/2006-09.html
17/10: Zsofie Barany: Deleveraging [drinks: Piotr]
- Paul Krugman model of financial multipliers http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/finmult.pdf
- Hyung Song Shin on leverage http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr346.html
10/10: Chris Colvin : Universal Banking is Better
- Required: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/253840f2-9307-11dd-98b5-0000779fd18c.html
- Required: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12305537
- History background: Times1932, Part1, Part2
- Theory background: Amar Gande, "Commercial Banks in Investment Banking"
3/10: Pierre Chaigneau: Why We Need the Paulson Plan
- Pierre's Notes
- Required reading: http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12305746
- Optional reading:
- Copy of the plan: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/29_09_08_congress_bailout.pdf
- Harvard panel discussion: http://video2.harvard.edu:8080/ramgen/AAD-PAN/FinMktsPanel.rm
- Charts from the NY Times:
26/9: Christian Siegel : House Prices Do Have a Wealth Effect
- Buiter: http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2007/10/housing-wealth-.html/
- Buiter: http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2007/10/ok-then-housinghtml/
- The Economist: "Home truths", Aug 7th 2008, http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11885272
- Willem H. Buiter Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth, 2008, http://www.nber.org/papers/w14204
- Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, and Robert J. Shiller: Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market, 2005, http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1235&context=bejm
- Christopher D. Carroll, Misuzu Otsuka, Jirka Slacalek: How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach, 2006, http://www.nber.org/papers/w12746
19/9: Tom Cunningham : Commodity Prices Nothing to do with Interest Rates
- Michael Masters testimony: it's index speculators: http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf
- Frankel: it's interest rates: http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/category/commodities/
- Krugman: it's not interest rates: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/commodity-prices-wonkish/
12/9: Burc Tuger, "Japan's Lost Decade & Our Current Financial Crisis"
- FT: "Japan's Salutary Tale in Banking Crises" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3928297c-b88a-11dc-893b-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
- FT: "Japans lost decade offers dire pointers for the Fed" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ce7f152-fe57-11dc-9e04-000077b07658.html
- Bernanke, "A Crash Course for Central Bankers" http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3272
- "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan" (with Ricardo J. Caballero and Takeo Hoshi), January 2008. American Economic Review, forthcoming. http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/anil.kashyap/research/Zombiejan2008fulldocument.pdf
- Japan's Economic and Financial Crisis: An Overview" (with Takeo Hoshi), The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2004: http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/anil.kashyap/research/japancrisis.pdf
- "Japan in the 1990s: A Lost Decade" with Appendix on computational issues (PDF): http://fhayashi.fc2web.com/Prescott1/Postscript_2003/hayashi-prescott.pdf
22 August 08: Piotr Zurawski: "Should central banks be given additional instruments to tackle this crisis? - On the technical side of central bank operations."
- "What Should Central Banks Do? What Should Be Their Macroeconomics Objectives and Operations?" Charles A. E. Goodhart (1994) http://www.jstor.org/stable/2235461?seq=1
- "Mission Creep at the Fed", Economist, 2008 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11897000
- Stiglitz, 1998, "More Instruments and Broader Goals: Moving Toward the Post Washington Consensus" http://time.dufe.edu.cn/wencong/washingtonconsensus/instrumentsbroadergoals.pdf
- "Hawk Alert", Economist, 2008 http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11535661
15 August: Michael McMahon: "The Global Credit Crunch - Causes, Consequences and Responses"
7 August: Sergi Lanau, "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles?"
- Nouriel Roubini (2006) "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles" http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118555660/abstract
- Adam S. Posen (2006) "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles", International Finance, Volume 9, Issue 1, Date: Spring 2006, Pages: 109-124 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118555656/abstract